IV THE LAST VOYAGE

CHAPTER 13

 

THE
CREW AND THE ADVISORS

 

The 27 September 1994 was the last day of ESTONIA in Tallinn and the 13th day of the current 14-day duty period of her crew - the Andresson crew.
Before the departure a crew list was handed over to the Harbour Master of Tallinn, which according to a fax from Andi Meister to Hans Rosengren - attached as Enclosure 13.186 - must have contained 187 names, i. e. 149 crew members on duty, 6 trainees, 4 crew members off duty and 28 advisors/ entertainers, although in the fax it is stated that only 27 persons were listed on the advisors'/entertainment list, but one more - Andrus Kullamaa - came on board after the master had already signed the list, thus the second list should contain 186 names, but 187 persons were on board.

According to a crew list subsequently submitted by the Estonian part of the JAIC, however, actually 188 persons should have been on the crew lists of which 3 were not on board, which reduces the number to 185, but 2 others were on board but not on the lists, which increases the number to 187. Nevertheless the Estonian count is 186 - see Enclosure 13.187 - which is not correct because the nautical adviser Juri Aavik is nowhere mentioned.

One of the crew members off-duty was the master of the second crew, Avo Piht, who was on board to be examined for his pilot exemption certificate when entering the Stockholm archipelago at the Söderarm entrance. For this purpose the sea transport area chief Dan Myrberg and the senior pilot of the Stockholm Pilots' Association Karl-Gustav Sundius, together with their ladies, were also on board.

According to the files of the Stockholm public prosecutor there were in addition about 25-30 Pakistani workers and an unknown number of relatives of the crew on board who were not registered anywhere.

For a better understanding of the professional background of the officers and ratings of the ESTONIA some information about the history and the types of vessels used in the Estonian merchant navy shall be presented at the beginning of this Chapter.

In 1991 Estonia as well as the other two Baltic States, Latvia and Lithuania became independent and the country received 3.2% of the tonnage of the former Soviet Russian merchant navy fleet. This tonnage consisted mainly of several dozens conventional type general cargo vessels which were mostly 20 or more years old, and which were supplemented by 15 somewhat newer Ro-Ro/cargo vessels. A group of 6 large and medium sized modern bulk carriers completed the fleet. Container- and reefer-vessels as well as tankers were missing.

Some passenger/car ferries employed mainly since 1991 demonstrate the restructuring process in progress. Before the take-over of the ESTONIA in January 1993 the car/passenger ferry GEORG OTTS - built for the Olympic Games in 1980 - was the largest Estonian ferry

. All the sea-going vessels were owned by the National Estonian Shipping Company (ESCO) controlled by the Ministry of Transport and Communications. The members of the Board of Directors were mainly high ranking civil servants from this Ministry while the management consisted of previous master mariners of Estonian nationality but with Russian education at the Leningrad Maritime Academy.

In the following the vessels on which ESTONIA's first and last master, Captain Arvo Andresson, obtained most of his sea-going experience, shall be introduced:

car/passenger ferry GEORG OTTS

 

Technical details:

GEORG OTTS (ESBH) Passenger and car motor ship
11 498 BRT / 4 805 NRT / 1 363 TDW;
134.82 m / 125.00 m - 21.80 m - 5.46 m / 12.60 m;
4 SULZER - 6-cylinder 4-stroke diesel engines /
17 400 HPE / 20.0 kn / 2 propellers;
1 200 passengers, cars, trailers;
11.1979/1980 - Stocznia Szczecinska im. Adolfo Warskiego, Szczecin/PL (B 483/01)
1980 GEORG OTTS Estonskoye Morskoye Parochodstvo, Tallinn/SU
1991 GEORG OTTS Eesti Merelaevandus A.s., Tallinn/ES

Also the technical details of the ANTSLA-type vessels on which Captain Arvo Andresson spent 101/2 of his 201/2 years as nautical officer - are reported as follows:

ANTSLA (ESBZ) Freight motor ship, ship type series "B 46"
6 555 BRT / 3 333 NRT / 7 400 TDW;
135.41 m / 122.48 m - 18.04 m - 6.63 m / 7.46 m;
1 SULZER - 5 cylinder 2-stroke diesel engine /
6 100 HPE / 15.0 kn / 1 propeller;
Container capacity: 112 TEU
27.01.-30.09.1972 - Stocznia Szczecinska im. Adolfo Warskiego, Szczecin/PL (B 46/01)
1972 LENINSKAYA GUARDIA - Estonskoye Morskoye Parochodstvo, Tallinn/SU
1992 ANTSLA - Eesti Merelaevandus A.s., Tallinn/ES

Further the fleet list of 1994 of all ESCO vessels is attached as Enclosure 13.188 and in the following are two photos showing ANTSLA-type vessels.

 

 

 

Next, the details of the professional careers of master, nautical officers, radio operator and engineers - as presented to JAIC by ESCO - shall be stated.

Captain

Name: Arvo Andresson ((), date of birth 03.02.1954.
Education: 1969-1973: Tallinn Marine School
1977-1982: Leningrad Maritime Academy.
Proficiency Certificates: KK0000001, issued 02.01.94 and 604/86 foreign-going master.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO 1990 and 46/1992.
Radiotelephone Operator Certificate RB 0000040, issued 09.03.94.
Refresher courses 05.03.1991.
Preparation for ESTONIA and pilot exam in Sweden 1994.
Record of service:
1/74 - 3/76: 4th officer, ship type ANTSLA dwt 7,400
4/76 - 7/77: 3rd officer
5/82 - 3/83: 2nd officer, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
4/83 - 2/84: chief officer, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
5/84 - 5/86: chief officer, ship type ANTSLA dwt 7,400
6/86 - 10/87: captain, ship type ANTSLA dwt 7,400
11/87 - 3/92: captain, ship type Ro-Ro dwt 4,600
4/92 - 12/92: captain, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
1/93 - 28/9/94: captain, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Captain Enn Neidre

When the ESTONIA was bought Arvo Andresson was appointed her first captain. He was from the start involved in the transfer of the ship and development of the organisation on board. After the creation of the new Estonian Maritime Administration, he received in 1994 the first master mariner's certificate issued after Estonia's Independence.
He held a pilot exemption certificate for the entry at Sandhamn into the fairways through the Stockholm archipelago. He had just before the accident passed his examination for the entry at Söderarm into the fairways of the archipelago to Stockholm.
Arvo Andresson had also attended several relevant courses, e.g. in "Passage Planning in Narrow Waters".
Apart from his native Estonian, he was able to communicate in Swedish, English, Finnish and Russian. Reference is also made to Subchapter 7.1.3.

Chief Officer

Name: Juhan Herma ((), date of birth 06.08.1964
Education: 1982-1988 Leningrad Maritime Academy. Proficiency Certificate: LS00000032, issued 09.05.1994.
Radar Simulator Certificate: 1993.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 - 132/1989.
Radiotelephone Operator Certificate No. 89, 1993.
Refresher courses at EMK 1993.
Preparation for ESTONIA and pilot exam in Sweden 1994. Attested 12.08.1994.
Record of service:
6/89 - 4/90: 3rd officer, ship type NAISSAAR dwt 6,070
5/90 - 6/91: 4th officer, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
7/91 - 10/91: 3rd officer, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
1/92 - 12/92: 2nd officer, INREKO ships
2/93 - 8/94: 2nd officer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
9/94 - 28/9/94: chief officer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian, Finnish
Recommended by: Technical department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Second Officer A

Name: Tormi Ainsalu ((), date of birth 04.12.1963.
Education: 1982-1988 Tallinn Maritime School including (3 years in Leningrad Maritime Institute)
Proficiency Certificate: 2078/88, issued 01.09.1988
Radar Simulator Certificate: 1991, ARPA 1992
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 - 289/1991.
Radiotelephone Operator Certificate 1991. Attested 21.07.1992.
Record of service:
11/88 - 2/91: seaman, ship type Ro-Ro dwt 4,600
3/91 - 6/92: 3rd officer, ship type Ro-Ro dwt 4,600
7/92 - 12/92: 2nd officer, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
1/93 - 28/9/94: 2nd officer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Second Officer B

Name: Peeter Kannussaar ((), date of birth 20.06.1964.
Education: 1988-1991 Leningrad Maritime Academy.
Proficiency Certificate: LS000005, issued 19.09.1994.
Radar Simulator Certificate: 1991.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 - 1991 in Leningrad. Attested 29.09.1992.
Record in Service:
~
9/91 - 9/92: 3rd officer, on general cargo vessels
10/92 - 12/92: 2nd officer, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
1/93 - 28/9/94: 2nd officer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Third Officer

Name: Andres Tammes ((), date of birth 25.08.1966.
Education: 1984-1988 Tallinn Fishery Marine School 1990-1992 Kotka Marine School
Proficiency Certificate: 1266/92, issued in Finland.
ARPA 19.03.1992, issued at the Kotka Marine School Training Centre.
Radiotelephone Operator Certificate: 1207, issued 27.04.1992 in Helsinki.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 1991 and 1992 (ARZAMAS and KORALL).
IMO accepted courses in Proficiency in Survival Craft, Basic Fire-fighting issued 11.01.91 in Rauma Marine College.
Record of service:
11/88 - 2/91: seaman, ship type Ro-Ro dwt 4600
1/93 - 4/94: 4th officer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
5/94 - 28/9/94: 3rd officer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian, Finnish
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Fourth Officer

Name: Kaimar Kikas ((), date of birth 09.04.1973.
Education: 1988-1992 Estonian Maritime Education Centre, Tallinn
Proficiency Certificate: LL0000034, issued 28.04.94.
Radar Simulator Certificate: 10.09.1993.
Radio-telephone Operator Certificate 1207, issued 27.04.1992 in Helsinki.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 217/1992.
Record of service:
1/93 - 4/94: seaman, passenger ferry ESTONIA
5/94 - 28/9/94: 4th officer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Language: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian, Finnish
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

In summary the following can be concluded:

- The master and senior officers received their basic education at the Leningrad Maritime Academy, an Institute which is not known to impress upon its students to act and decide on their own.
- The juniors, Tammes and Kikas, were educated in Kotka and Tallinn after the political change.

Note: As will be seen later, it was Tammes who took the lead in the transmission of the 'Mayday' calls after Ainsalu had almost spoiled the situation, and although he was not on watch, he had apparently returned to the bridge on his own initiative.

- Captain Arvo Andresson spent 101/2 of his 201/2 years at sea on a vessel of the ANTSLA type, which is an old conventional cargo vessel, furthermore he was employed on board of GEORG OTTS as 2nd officer for 17 months, as chief officer for 5 months and as master for 4 months, before he took over the ESTONIA in January 1993. The car/passenger ferry GEORG OTTS was exclusively employed between Tallinn and Helsinki, i.e. she sailed no more than 20 nm from the nearest land "in sheltered waters".


- Chief officer Juhan Herma had only been at sea for 5 years in total, of which 10 months on a cargo vessel and 16 months on GEORG OTTS as 4th and 3rd officer, whereafter he left ESCO and sailed on INREKO ships from February 1993 until August 1994 - according to the statement of ESCO - although at the same time he was already 2nd officer on ESTONIA, which, of course, is not possible, thus there must be something wrong. Only in September 1994, thus shortly before the casualty, did he become chief officer.

- 2nd officer Tormi Ainsalu had been at sea for 51/2 years only, of which 21/2 years as sailor and 3 years as officer, 6 months of which he had been on GEORG OTTS as 2nd officer before he joined ESTONIA in January 1993.

- 2nd officer Peeter Kannussaar had been at sea for 3 years only, of which for 1 year he was employed on an unknown vessel as 3rd officer and for 3 months as 2nd officer on GEORG OTTS before he joined the ESTONIA in January 1993.

- 3rd officer Andres Tammes had been at sea for only 2 years and 4 months as sailor on a Ro-Ro cargo vessel, whereafter he attended the Kotka Marine School for 2 years and signed on ESTONIA in January 1993 as 4th officer and had been 3rd officer since May 1994.

- 4th officer Kaimar Kikas, finally, was only 21 years old. His first and only ship was the ESTONIA. He was employed for the first 12 months as AB and became 4th officer in January 1994.

The above evaluation reveals that master and senior officers were Russian educated, that only the master had spent some considerable time at sea, however, that also his experience with car/passenger ferries was restricted to the GEORG OTTS employed between Helsinki and Tallinn, which is in no way comparable to the Tallinn-Stockholm trade with ESTONIA. The chief officer as well as 2nd officer A - Tormi Ainsalu - had been at sea each for about 5 years only with 16 months respectively 6 months on GEORG OTTS as the only car/passenger ferry experience, whilst the 2nd officer B - Peeter Kannussaar - had just 3 years at sea, of which 3 months on GEORG OTTS before he joined ESTONIA.
It has to be concluded that neither the master nor the nautical officers had had any previous experience with a comparable vessel when they joined the ESTONIA and that the only one with considerable sea experience was Captain Arvo Andresson, whilst all the others, including the chief officer and the 2nd officer A, could only be considered junior officers.

 

Radio Officer

Name: Tiit Sooaluste ((), date of birth 08.09.1966.
Education: 1960-1962 Tallinn Technical University 1983-1986 Tallinn Marine Fishery School
Proficiency Certificate: 997/1974, issued 10.06.74, 1st class radio operator.
Courses at St. Petersburg Marine Academy in 1982. Attested in 1988, 1993.
Record of service:
6/62 - 2/93: radio operator, ship type TARTU, POVENETS
3/93 - 28/9/94: radio operator, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

The Deck Ratings

The boatswains and all the able seamen had attended the general ship safety course on the training vessels ARZAMAS or KORALL.
The A.B. seaman of the watch during the critical hours of the accident, Silver Linde, was born in 1970. He was employed by ESCO in January 1993. Before serving on the ESTONIA, he had worked on board the Ro-Ro ferry TRANSESTONIA and on the GEORG OTTS. According to his own statement he was holding a mate's license.

 

Chief Engineer

Name: Lembit Leiger (missing), date of birth 01.12.1950.
Education: 1967-1971 Tallinn Marine School 1981-1989 Leningrad Marine Academy
Proficiency Certificate: MK0000001, 05.01.1994
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 458/1990 (ARZAMAS).
Refresher courses in Estonian Marine Education Centre. Attested: 12.01.1993.
Record of service:
1/72 - 12/74: motorman, ship type TARTU 1 x 740 kW
1/75 - 12/78: 3rd engineer, ship type HEINLAID 1 x 1550 kW
1/78 - 7/81: 3rd engineer
8/81 - 4/86: 2nd engineer
5/86 - 6/89: chief engineer, ship type KOLGA 1 x 850 kW
7/89 - 11/89: 2nd engineer, ship type E.KIVISTIK 1 x 12205
12/89 - 2/90: chief engineer, ship type KOLGA 1 x 850 kW
3/90 - 12/92: chief engineer, car ferry TRANSESTONIA 2 x 3309 kW
1/93 - 1/93: chief engineer, passenger ferry SAINT PATRICK 2 x 6951 kW
2/93 - 28/9/94: chief engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian, Finnish
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

First Engineer

Name: Arvo Tulvik ((), date of birth 19.10.1952.
Education: 1971-1976 Leningrad Maritime Academy
Proficiency Certificate: 1271/83 - 2nd engineer.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 191/1991 (ARZAMAS).
Refresher courses in St. Petersburg Maritime Academy 1990. Attested: 1990.
Record of service:
9/78 - 11/78: 4th engineer, ship type ANTSLA 1 x 4490 kW
12/78 - 5/81: 3rd engineer
6/81 - 12/83: 3rd engineer, passenger ferry GEORG OTTS
1/84 - 9/86: 2nd engineer
10/86 - 3/88: 2nd engineer, ship type ANTSLA 1 x 4490 kW
4/88 - 4/90: 2nd engineer, ship type RAKVERE 1 x 4490 kW
5/90 - 6/91: 2nd engineer, ship type G.SULE 1 x 7500 kW
7/91 - 12/92: 2nd engineer, ship type E.KIVISTIK 1 x 12205
1/93 - 5/94: 2nd engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
6/94 - 28/9/94: 1st engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian, Finnish
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Second Engineer

Name: Peeter Tüür, survivor, date of birth 06.08.1947
Education: 1963-1968 Tallinn Marine School 1975-1981 Leningrad Maritime Academy
Proficiency Certificate: 929/72.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 47/1991 (ARZAMAS). Attested: 08.12.1992.
Record of service:
2/68 - 12/82: 3rd engineer, 2nd engineer, ferries SÕPRUS, TEHUMARDI
1/82 - 12/92: 3rd engineer, ship type HAAPSALU 1 x 4490 kW
1/93 - 28/9/94: 2nd engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Third Engineer

Name: Margus Treu, survivor, date of birth 28.08.1964.
Education: 1985-1990 St. Petersburg Maritime Academy
Proficiency Certificate: 814/990.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 37/1992 (ARZAMAS). Attested: September 1994.
Record of service:
1990 - 1993: motorman & engineer on ESCO ships
07.01.1993: 4th engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
16.09.1994: 3rd engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Fourth Engineer

Name: Agur Targama ((), date of birth 18.12.1966.
Education: 1982 - 1986
Proficiency Certificate: 1324/86.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 -1990. (ARZAMAS). Attested: 1994.
Record of service:
1/89 - 7/91: motorman, ship type TARTU 1 x 740 kW
8/91 - 12/93: 4th engineer, ship type POVENETS 1 x 2390 kW
1/94 - 8/94: chief motorman, passenger ferry ESTONIA
9/94 - 28/9/94: 4th engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO

 

Electric Engineer

Name: Anatoli Ivanov ((), date of birth 16.03.1951.
Education: 1969-1974 Leningrad Maritime Academy
Proficiency Certificate: 671/1984.
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 - 1253/1991 (ARZAMAS).
Refresher courses 1985. Attested: 1989.
Record of service:
4/77 - 10/77: electrician, ship type POVENETS 1 x 2390 kW
11/77 - 5/79: electric engineer, ship type TARTU 1 x 740 kW
1/80 - 7/88: chief electric engineer, ship type RAKVERE 1 x 4490 kW
8/88 - 12/92: chief electric engineer, ship type E.KIVISTIK 1 x 12 205
1/93 - 28/9/94: electric engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA
Languages: Russian (native tongue), English Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO

 

Systems Engineer

Name: Henrik Sillaste, survivor, date of birth 13.09.1969
Education: 1986-1991 Tallinn Marine Education Centre.
Proficiency Certificate: 1560/1991
Training Certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STCW/78 - 176/1992. (ARZAMAS). Attested: 03.05.1992.
Record of service:
8/91 - 3/92: 4th engineer, ship type POVENETS 1 x 2390 kW
4/92 - 12/92: 2nd engineer, ship type VORMSI 2 x 110 kW
1/93 - 28/9/94: systems engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA, survivor.
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

Refrigerating Engineer

Name: Andres Verro, survivor, date of birth 08.09.1959.
Education: 1974-1978 Tallinn Fishery Marine School
Proficiency Certificate: 34/1992.
Training certificate accepted by IMO in accordance with STW/78 - 8/1993. (ARZAMAS). Course of Proficiency in Survival Craft -1993. Attested: 28.12.1992.
Record of service:
4/78 - 12/92: refrigerating engineer at 'Hiiu Kalur' collective farm, 4th engineer
1/93 - 28/9/94: refrigerating engineer, passenger ferry ESTONIA, survivor.
Languages: Estonian (native tongue), English, Russian
Recommended by: Technical Department, ESCO Senior Captain, ESCO, Enn Neidre

 

To sum up the professional careers of the engineers it has to be concluded that the senior engineers, at least, were much better qualified and comparatively also more experienced than were the nautical officers, with the exception of Captain Andresson.
Not much can be said about the radio operator. He appears nowhere and also the statement of ESCO about the dates of his professional carrier must at least be partly wrong. Some information was received from the Maritime Department of the Polytechnic Kotka, which is attached as Enclosure 13.189.

Next, the first crew list of ESTONIA is attached as Enclosure 13.190 on which the survivors are marked with an "S".

Finally the statements of
Electrician Arvi Rohumaa - Enclosure 13.191
Motorman Elmar Siegel - Enclosure 13.192
Motorman Ivan Ziljajev - Enclosure 13.193

are attached, which were taken in July 1996 and which provide some general information about the crew, although not very much. Video tapes of these interviews are available.
In addition to the standard crew there were six trainees for the new vessel DIANA II - planned to be renamed VIRONIA - on board of whom only the officer Einar Kukk, who survived and whose testimony is of relevance in many respects.

 

The Engine Ratings

There were eight ratings in the engine department: four senior motormen, two electricians, one welder and one turner. All were said to have passed the general ship safety course on the training vessels ARZAMAS or KORALL.

The Advisers

Furthermore, there were said to be nine advisors on board, one Finn and eight Swedes, all of whom were employed by AB Hornet, the ship management company used by Nordström & Thulin. According to the list submitted by ESCO
- Enclosure 13.187 - however, there were only 8:

Jan Bergendahl - FIN
Magnus Andersson - SWE
Mikael Dahlin - SWE
Hans Svensson - SWE
Toni Heinonen - SWE
Carita Baransinski - SWE
Paula Liikamaa - SWE
Peter Järvinen - SWE

The list does not include Captain Juri Aavik who was nautical adviser and the off-duty adviser Susanne Pundi, while the others mainly belonged to the catering department, among them Jan Bergendahl from Mariehamn, in charge of the hotel and restaurant sections, and Magnus Andersson, an expert for the ship's computer system. Only two of these nine Hornet employees - Paula Liikamaa and Peter Järvinen - survived and for the time between the big heel and the sinking there are only very few indications in the survivors' statements referring to those not having survived.

In any event the crew list of ESCO - Enclosure 13.187 - is incomplete and consequently the total number of people stated to have been on board in the JAIC Report is wrong which means that also the number of people not having survived the catastrophe is wrong.